Société de recherche indépendante en macro-économie et stratégie d’investissement

China’s decision to discontinue its zero-Covid policy has undeniably had a massive impact on the country’s outlook (and to a lesser extent the global outlook). Over the first three weeks of December, about 0.9% of the population had the virus (at a daily rate). Some estimates go as far as 40% of the population having the virus at the end of December vs 1% in early November. Assuming the virus spreads steadily with an R0 close to 4, herd immunity could be reached in the next month or a little longer. This will fuel mobility and economic activity, especially in services.